F1 | Beware of drawing hasty conclusions for a quick lap that came out of the cold…

Can it ever be finite what has yet to begin? This is the question that must be answered to evaluate the results of the most unusual four days of testing in modern F1. The (non) Barcelona tests will go down in history for the bad weather, the rain, even the snow, for having been a good general run-in for the new single-seaters, but certainly not for having given convincing indications for the next season.

We could sift through and rattle off data and numbers; it would be a mere exercise in style, an end in itself. Too many variables, or rather, unknowns. The impact of a variable can be hypothesized, even calculated, the unknown is by its very nature unknowable. Montmelò resurfaced, a temperature worthy of a Winter Olympics, heavier cars and with Halo, different compounds compared to those of 2017. Let them work in peace, all without distinction, without necessarily wanting to come up with incorrect predictions or predictions that are promptly denied. The first round in Barcelona has less value than football in August.

I have been reading since yesterday that the world championship would already be headed towards Mercedes, because Lewis Hamilton set a significant time "on the buzzer" (I won't even report it, you can find it everywhere anyway) with medium tyres, therefore with a sufficiently hard compound. The syllogism is easily done. If he's fast with hard tires on cold asphalt, we'll shut down and shut up. While we're at it, I'd suggest not going to Melbourne at all, let's award both titles directly to Mercedes.

We are naturally inclined to give more weight to form than to substance. The few serious things that can be gleaned from these very first (half) tests were mostly snubbed. The mileage of the Honda-powered Toro Rosso is really good news, as is the McLaren which needs to let the Renault engine breathe with additional air intakes, then managing to lap a lot on the last day. Is Woking starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel?

But we should not draw hasty conclusions based on mere suggestions. Mercedes is the favorite by right, there are currently no elements to suggest that Hamilton will be in difficulty in 2018. The only certain fact is that the two queens of 2017, when the weather conditions permitted, have grinded km without any hitch. The rest is just chatter, there is in fact no counter-proof to Mercedes' time trial, with all due respect to those who have already started reciting their requiem for the championship.

Nobody, not even the usual well-informed, can estimate the objective value of the Mercedes lap, nor the potential in the strings of the Anglo-Germans' direct rivals. Everyone pedals for themselves in this phase, pursuing work programs that are difficult for non-experts to understand. If Mercedes wins again in 2018 it will certainly not be because Hamilton came out of the cold with a completely impromptu fast lap. At least on this, unlike in Barcelona, ​​it doesn't rain.

Antonino Rendina

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