F1 | Monaco Grand Prix: analysis of qualifying

The track changes, the type of track changes, but the result is always the same old Mercedes monologue. Even in qualifying for the Monaco Grand Prix, the sixth stage of the 2019 Formula 1 World Championship, it was Mercedes that conquered the entire front row, capable of obtaining the fifth "front-row lockout" of the season. Lewis Hamilton prevailed by just a few thousandths and took pole position, who in his last attempt managed to put together a good lap, enough to guarantee himself the most coveted place on the starting grid and to dedicate it to a person who unfortunately recently left, Niki Lauda.

Teammate Valtteri Bottas will start alongside the Englishman, trailing by just 86 thousandths from his first pole in the Principality, although the Finn may complain about the second and decisive attempt in which traffic and too-cold tires compromised his performance and a possible departure from the post. Behind the two Mercedes steamrollers was the reliable Max Verstappen, capable of always being ready at the decisive moment until now. It didn't go as well for the other Red Bull, that of Pierre Gasly, fifth overall but penalized with three places on the grid for having obstructed another driver during Q2. Between the two cans was inserted the Ferrari of Sebastian Vettel, who threw his heart into the obstacle despite the technical shortcomings of his SF90: the German kissed the wall several times during qualifying, but it was clear that he was trying to give everything in a complicated situation.

Excellent performance by Kevin Magnussen, sixth at the end of qualifying on the Haas, a position that allowed him to be first among the second-tier teams. Thanks to Pierre Gasly's penalty, the Dane will gain a place on the grid, which will allow him to start from fifth place, immediately behind Sebastian Vettel. Daniel Ricciardo is also slowly making significant progress with his Renault and the seventh time achieved in qualifying, on a track like Monte Carlo where the feeling with the car must be perfect to get the most, proves it. Great day also for Toro Rosso, capable of placing both cars in the top ten: Daniil Kvyat will start from eighth place on the grid, while his teammate, Alex Albon, will start from tenth place. Between the two cars of the Italian team was the McLaren of Carlos Sainz Jr., who did well to get into Q3 despite the difficulties encountered in free practice due to some technical problems on his MCL34.

What is undoubtedly making the news is the early exclusion of Charles Leclerc in Q1, the result of an error on the wall in the track improvement forecasts. The Italian team believed they were safe with the time previously set by the Monegasque, but the progressive improvement in the track conditions was greater than expected by the men in red, thus leading to the sensational exclusion of the home idol already in the first few qualification stages. Among the disappointments of the day, Alfa Romeo could not fail to be there, out with both cars already in Q2, but aware that Monaco would be a complicated event.

Q1: Leclerc eliminated in Ferrari chaos

If there were no particular surprises in the higher areas of the standings, with Mercedes and Red Bull immediately competitive and able to obtain the time using only one set of soft tyres, the same cannot be said of Ferrari, author of a poor Q1 . Sebastian Vettel managed to gain access to Q2 only in the very last seconds, while Charles Leclerc was eliminated early due to an error on the wall. But to understand what happened at Ferrari it is useful to take a step back and start by saying that Monte Carlo is a track on which the track constantly evolves, where the times are lowered lap after lap and where it is very important to have a clear vision of how it will improve. To do this, the teams rely on complex algorithms which, based on the data available (such as temperature and other atmospheric conditions), the data coming from the car, the Pirelli data and those acquired during free practice, attempt to calculate what the weather might be. of "cutting", useful for moving on to the next phase of qualification. Speaking of high-end teams, generally these algorithms are particularly useful when trying to obtain a useful time to move on to the next phase using a harder compound than the rivals in Q2, in which case also taking advantage of the delta data between the various compounds. On a track like that of Monaco, however, where the track is constantly improving, it is very important to be able to be immediately competitive and to have a clear idea of ​​how it will evolve, especially when the other mid-group riders go to mount new tires and try to beat the clock. And it is precisely at this juncture that Ferrari made the mistake that led to the elimination of Charles Leclerc. All this also coincided with Sebastian Vettel's difficulties in obtaining a good time to pass the Q1 cut, due to traffic, high fuel consumption and a small mistake, so much so that the German was forced to use a second set of tires soft to get a valid time to move on to Q2. But even in the difficulties of the four-time world champion it is possible to understand the mistake made by the red wall: before taking to the track with the second soft set, in fact, Vettel was completing an attempted fast lap, which however ended early due to a small touch on the wall in the swimming pool area.

Even if on balance the Monegasque was excluded by only half a tenth, it undoubtedly remains difficult to understand the choice of the Red team not to make itself safe by bringing out the number 16 so as to be already on the track in case there was the need to try a new fast lap. Clearly the objective was to save a new set of tyres, but on a track like Monte Carlo, where overtaking is notoriously extremely complicated, we cannot allow ourselves to take such a risk with such a narrow margin. To have a more concrete reference, just take a look at the progression of the times of the Renaults and Racing Points, in particular of Nico Hulkenberg, capable of improving by around a second and a half in the space of 10 minutes. It was therefore a double error on the part of the Ferrari pitstop, not only in the forecasts (for which a small margin is generally left anyway) of improvement on the track, but also in not having sent the Monegasque out despite an advantage of only a few thousandths compared to the reference time foreseen by the wall itself. All this just to save a new set of tires.

In addition to the aforementioned Leclerc, the two Racing Points and the two Williams were also excluded from the first qualifying session. If this is nothing new for the Grove team, it was certainly a very disappointing day for Racing Point, never really competitive until now during this weekend. “This weekend we struggled to find the rhythm and going into qualifying, we knew it wouldn't be easy. In the end, we needed a tenth or two to make the difference and get through to Q2; we simply got lost. It was a disappointing day because we know how important qualifying is in Monaco and the race is decided by track position,” commented Sergio Perez at the end of qualifying.  

Q2: The two Alfa Romeos out

The second qualifying session saw several surprises but also some confirmations compared to pre-race weekend expectations. We knew it would be a complicated weekend for Alfa Romeo, lacking aerodynamic load compared to its competitors. In particular, the greatest difficulties were found in the management of the tyres, a factor which had a significant influence on the qualifying session: in an attempt to bring the front tires up to temperature, we often ended up taking the rear tires out of the window, resulting in oversteer and slipping. This, clearly, doesn't help on a track where you have to be perfect and where the wall is only a few centimeters away. “Simple, we weren't fast enough” – commented Raikkonen at the end of qualifying -. “We managed to set our fastest lap of the weekend in qualifying, but the other cars improved much more than us. We struggled with the balance and when I had grip at the front, the rear would slip, and once that was resolved, then I wasn't comfortable with the front of the car anymore." As if that wasn't enough, to further complicate the day of the Swiss-licensed team, was the penalty imposed on Antonio Giovinazzi for having obstructed Nico Hulkenberg in Q1: a situation actually resulting from an error on the wall, which warned the driver too late Italian to have the German from Renault behind him.

The exclusion of Romain Grosjean was also a surprise, but there is a clear explanation behind the Frenchman's elimination. The Haas driver, in fact, was hindered by Pierre Gasly during his fastest lap and this did not allow him to obtain a valid time to pass the Q2 trap, despite the high potential of the car. Just like Giovinazzi, Gasly had not been warned in time by the wall that he had another rider behind him, resulting in a penalty and loss of three positions on the grid. Lando Norris and Nico Hulkenberg also ended their qualifying early, out by just a few thousandths.

Q3: Hamilton takes pole, Bottas regrets

The third and final part of qualifying gave us a spectacle in the fight for pole position, with the two Mercedes ready to battle it out for the most coveted spot. Monaco is a special session, one of the most beautiful of the season, where the driver's trust in his car counts, where it counts knowing how to seek the limit, grazing the walls but without going into them. It's adrenaline, it's entertainment, it's a challenge for all the riders, a battle that everyone wants to win.

Lewis Hamilton won the pole position, with an advantage of just 86 thousandths over his teammate, in the joy of a finish line to be dedicated to those who are no longer here, Niki Lauda: “This is one of the best pole positions that I memories” – declared Hamilton after qualifying -. “We have had many successes over the years, but this means a lot: it was a difficult week for the team and I personally suffered a lot from it. As a team we are continuing to take steps forward together, becoming stronger and improving our performances. I'm proud of everyone: we are dejected by what happened and we are trying to get back up to dedicate the result to Niki. In Monaco I haven't collected much over the years, I've never managed to do a perfect lap, but I think I almost achieved it today. This pole is for Niki” added the Englishman. Pole arrived despite a mistake at “La Rascasse”, where the 5-time world champion lost the car slightly when entering the corner.

It was a battle that was played on the edge of thousandths and in which the preparation and management of the tires made the difference. Valtteri Bottas knows this well, having been the victim of a not particularly favorable launch lap, which then did not allow him to actually fight for pole position in the second and decisive attempt. The Finn, despite having gained a margin, in fact found traffic in the last sector of the track, being forced to slow down significantly and lose temperature in his tyres. This did not allow him to prepare his preparatory lap in the best possible way for the assault on the final time trial, so much so that, taking a look at the then aborted lap, both in the first and second sectors Bottas suffered from obvious balance problems of the car, with the single-seater moving significantly in the center/exit of the corner with evident oversteer. Without traffic, Valtteri would most likely have managed to close that gap of 86 thousandths and snatch pole from his teammate, also gaining a privileged position in view of the race: "At the moment I'm disappointed with my qualifying, I thought I had the speed to do pole, I felt good in the car. On the first attempt I could have done better, on the second I found a lot of traffic on the preparation lap, I had to slow down in some points and the tires lost temperature."

Opening the second row will be Max Verstappen, once again a source of salvation for Red Bull, capable of bringing the RB15 even in front of a Ferrari in clear difficulty, something that didn't happen to his teammate. Most likely the gap from the two Mercedes could have been smaller, but exactly as happened to Bottas, Verstappen was also a victim of traffic in Monte Carlo, being forced to slow down in the last corners before his attempt with the result that the tires came out from the ideal temperature range, resulting too cold, as confirmed by the Dutchman himself in post-qualifying: “In Q3 I wasn't able to get the tires to temperature in the range we wanted, which cost us some lap time , but we didn't have enough to conquer the front row. Overall I feel comfortable with the car, we continue to push to improve: obviously overtaking here is difficult, so it will be very complicated to be able to recover positions in the race, but if we manage to stay close to the Mercedes then who knows what we could do with the strategy . Whatever happens I will push as hard as always for the best result."

Disappointing day at Ferrari, thanks not only to the exclusion of Charles Leclerc in Q1, but also the fourth place obtained by Sebastian Vettel, far from those ahead of him. The German was the protagonist of a small error during his last attempt, ending up slightly touching the barriers in the last sector, but realistically it would have been difficult to obtain more than a fourth place, given the speed also shown by the Verstappen duo. Red Bull. For the last time trial there was an interesting discussion between the driver and the wall regarding the way to get on track and the position, whether to try two laps to try to get the tires up to temperature as best as possible or whether to do a single one. and avoid traffic. Furthermore, the German had expressly requested to be put in the position to be able to complete an out-lap lap without anyone in front, in order to prepare in the best possible way and avoid some traffic problems as happened to Verstappen and Bottas. “It was a difficult day for the whole team. I ended up in the barriers in the third free practice session but the guys were very good at repairing the car and putting me in a position to compete in qualifying. Unfortunately we struggled to make the tires work well in Q1 and this forced me to resort to an additional set. So I qualified but this left Charles excluded who was 15th at the time", commented Vettel at the end of qualifying.

Of note is the excellent performance of Kevin Magnussen, who qualified sixth (he will start fifth given Pierre Gasly's penalty) and was able to make the most of the potential of his Haas. The American team, up to now, has proven to be truly competitive on this track and, as we have been accustomed to several times this season, the flying lap seems to be a strong point compared to the race pace, where it has already happened that the VF19 has then disappointed: the updates, however, seem to have pushed the car in the right direction, partially managing to resolve the tire management problems that had plagued it in the first races. “A really good session. I had a good car, I could push, I felt comfortable. I put a lot of stress on the guys with the front wing damage in the session after kissing the wall, they did a fantastic job to fix it and send me out again. I got into Q3 with a good lap, then I did another one. We know how important it is to qualify well on this track, so I am extremely satisfied. It was a perfect job from the whole team, not just from me, it was a team effort”, added a satisfied Kevin Magnussen.

The strategies for the race

Undoubtedly, planning strategies in Monaco is always a lottery, anything can really happen and the entrance of the SC is always around the corner. Without forgetting that on Sunday it cannot be ruled out that a few drops of rain could fall on the track, making the track even more complicated. According to what Pirelli predicted, the fastest strategy on a dry track would be to start with the soft, and then stop from the 10th to the 22nd lap to fit the hard compound, a compound that almost no one tried during free practice. Perhaps a more realistic strategy, albeit slightly slower according to Pirelli, is to start on the soft tires and then switch to the medium ones from the 18th to the 25th lap. Without a doubt, however, on a track like that of Monte Carlo it is essential to be able to find the right moment in which to make the pit stop, because the risk is to find yourself in traffic and lose precious time: generally, therefore, the overcut is a strategy that can work if used properly and with a little luck. In this regard, it will be interesting to see how the riders will manage the soft C5 compound (the old hypersoft).